This article discusses an assessment of the profitability of operating a 5-acre Thai guava orchard in South Florida. The assessment used simulation techniques to incorporate yield and price risks. The article also demonstrates the use of a stoplight chart, an approach Extension agents might adopt to aid clients' decision making. The stoplight chart presents the results of the analysis, which indicate a 2% chance that the grower would experience a negative return/loss (red), a 21% chance that the return would be greater than $0 but less than $8,450 (yellow), and a 77% chance that the return would be greater than $8,450 (green).
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Evans, E. A., & Garcia, S. (2016). Assessing the Profitability of Guava Production in South Florida Under Risk and Uncertainty. The Journal of Extension, 54(1), Article 17. https://doi.org/10.34068/joe.54.01.17