Date of Award

5-2009

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Legacy Department

Civil Engineering

Advisor

Chowdhury, Mashrur

Committee Member

Bell , Lansford C

Committee Member

Ogle , Jennifer H

Committee Member

Skipper , Charles O

Abstract

This document is a redacted version of the original dissertation titled 'Development of a Methodology for Evaluating and Anticipating Improvised Explosive Device Threat Activity Using a Fault Tree Based Process.' To allow for publication, information was removed which was considered sensitive in nature or which could be used by those who employ the Improvised Explosive Device, to negate any advantage gained by this research. The complete un-redacted dissertation is available (with proper vetting) to those whishing to further develop the concepts outlined in this document. Those interested in obtaining access to the complete document should contact the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO).
To date there is little published evidence to believe that a sufficient IED threat prediction capability has been developed. Most of the countermeasures seen on the battlefield today are reactive in nature designed to neutralize the effects of a device before it causes injury to military and civilian personnel. These countermeasures have meet with varying levels of success. An efficient threat prediction capability will significantly increase the ability of military forces to eliminate the threat associated with the IED. The lack of an accurate threat prediction capability is a possible result of not having identified all of the variables or the variable relationships associated with IED placement. This research analyzes the variables associated with an IED incident and develops an IED threat prediction process using the Fault Tree model. This dissertation also explores the use of visualization software to determine their suitability in C-IED operations. Furthermore, the application of a Fault Tree based process as a decision support tool for use by decision makers involved in C-IED operations is analyzed.
This research is conducted in three phases with the first phase dedicated to the development of a Fault Tree diagram representing an IED incident. During this phase a complete Fault Tree is constructed identifying, sequencing, and establishing relationships between all variable associated with a successful IED attack against a military vehicle operating on a road. The second phase outlines the development of a complete process intended to serve as an operational guide for those attempting to employ the concepts addressed. To ensure a more precise understanding of the required procedures, a theoretical case study was used to articulate and demonstrate the requisite activities. Through this research, events were identified as required for an effective attack to take place. Through the integration of the Fault Tree, probability information and visualization assets a threat prediction capability is demonstrated. The ability to predict IED activity will provide military personnel a distinct advantage in defeating the IED threat and directly contribute to the increased safety of military and civilian personnel living and operating in an IED environment.

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